Preamble.

This evening came the long-awaited American response to Russia’s security demands. Let’s see what it all means.

Much Ado About Absolutely Nothing.

Put bluntly, if this article was to recount the progress made by tonight’s announcement, it would already be finished. For all the hype, diplomacy, hopes and dreams of so many, the announcement was more of an insult than an inspiration. For the few that had looked at facts rather than fantasies, articles such as this had predicted that no progress whatsoever would be made. In spite of Washington shunning Russia’s draft agreement, certain things were said that merit more than a little investigation.

Western Word Salad.

Both Blinken and Stoltenberg have said that the path to future diplomacy is still an option. Viewed from a different perspective that is tantamount to saying that a proven blind alley remains open. What is not open however is the possibility of either the US or NATO finding any common ground concerning Russia’s security guarantees. For all the alleged diplomacy coming out of the West, there is not nor will there ever be any chance of NATO stepping back through diplomacy. The fact that Blinken wants his responses kept secret shows beyond any doubt that Washington has been buying time rather than actually looking at the genuine worries that Russia has regarding the current situation.

Having Your Cake.

When Stoltenberg did eventually start his press conference half an hour late, other than the usual bluster regarding unity and dancing around Russia’s demands, he started to demand that Russia should “withdraw its troops” from Georgia, Ukraine and Moldova. By this he meant South Ossetia, the Donbass Republics and Transnistria. The war in Georgia was due to the government attacking ethnic Russian citizens, Moscow being forced to react in order to prevent further casualties. The other two countries, Moldova and the Ukraine are not NATO member states and therefore nothing whatsoever to do with Brussels. In the face of requests by Moscow to back off, that Stoltenberg upped the ante gives a very good insight into western intentions towards Russia.

Eating It.

Furthermore, after all his mumbling about Russia, he then went on to repeat the oft-voiced narrative about NATO being a defensive and not offensive alliance. The mere fact that it is in the Ukraine whilst telling others where America thinks they ought to be says far more than NATO’s boss in Brussels ever could.

Taking The Biscuit.

If his words to that point had not said enough about both himself and his organization, he then informed the press that NATO (an apparently defensive alliance, remember) will be sending additional reinforcements to both the Baltic and Black Seas. Put bluntly, after Moscow’s proposals regarding de-escalation, all NATO could offer was further escalation.

Digesting It All.

In all honesty, most people in the know (and that certainly includes all the dignitaries of Moscow) knew that the US would budge ‘not one inch westwards’. The mention of continued diplomacy is mere lip service on the part of Blinken, the importance of talk having walked out the door months ago. Now it’s time to walk the walk, and with ever more resources heading eastwards, there are few other options than a Russian Drang nach Westen. With the pinnacle of global diplomacy Sergei Lavrov going as far as to say that Stoltenberg has ‘lost touch with reality’ and that ‘You know, I stopped taking any view of his statements a long time ago’, flying to further meetings is merely going to add to climate change.

The other big news story today is that Vladimir Putin may approve the supply of armaments to the Donbass Republics. The western world may scream to high heaven about it, yet this is precisely what NATO and the US have been doing for years now.

The Last Supper?

With the not unexpected rebuttal by both Washington and Brussels, Russia now has a free hand to do as it wishes. The West will counter, saying that it wishes to debate, yet with diplomacy having failed and NATO having no place in Eastern Europe, Moscow is not going to pay much attention. In fact it will probably be paying far more attention to relations and ties with Beijing than with Washington. Moreover, with Moscow possibly looking to base missiles in the Caribbean and Latin America, the West may get bitten by its own tactics. With diplomatic ties now being so strained, it would come as no surprise if embassies are vacated, either voluntarily or under order, the situation today being worse than at any time in the past.

A gulf now separates the East and West, NATO and US’ actions having taken relations to the lowest of ebbs. With rearmed Republics, a reborn Russia and war-hungry western nations, conflict has never been closer than it is today. The West has sought war in the world for the last sixty years; should it find that war with Russia, it may regret the encounter for sixty decades…

Preamble.

Today, the Ukrainian President stated that ‘Ukrainian intelligence has learned to effectively counteract external aggression and believes that it is time to move on to offensive actions to defend national interests.’ With that statement made, we have to again look at the situation to see what this means.

Wolf in Sheep’s Clothing.

For the last eight years, Kiev, with the backing of Washington has wailed to the world about alleged Russian aggression at the same time as it has completely ignored the terms of Minsk Agreement and bombarded residential districts of the Donbass daily with artillery. This has been done under the auspices of ‘self-defense’ and with the OSCE turning a blind eye, it has got away with literal murder on innumerable occasions. The statement made today takes things to another level. Instead of defense, the Ukrainian President is talking of offense, this potentially being the trigger for war.

The Naked Emperor.

There is however a whole swarm of flies in the ointment. The first is that the Ukraine is simply not in a position to fight a war. It has a lot of dated equipment and conscripts, but it really is an acute case of quantity over quality. The next is the fact that the country is stony broke. The coffers are empty due to both the costs of war as well as corruption still being rampant in Kiev. The EU, US and Canada are throwing money at the government, but with so many holes in the Ukraine’s pockets, the effect of this money will not realize anything like the potential it should. It has to be noted at this point that whilst the West is throwing every possible resource at Zelenskiy, it has not always been so. Previously, the Verkhovna Rada was obliged to meet certain requirements in order to obtain IMF loans etc., but as things stand today, western governments are giving Kiev every push it can to start the war that Washington wants.

The Grizzled Bear.

The Kremlin is now sick to the back teeth of the whole affair. After the US sent the country to the dogs in 2014, the situation of its neighbor has gone from bad to worse to downright shocking, yet for all the woes that have befallen it, Russia has always been portrayed as the culprit. Having a fleabitten dig next door is never fun, yet when transatlantic alliances attempt to throw the fleas over the border, the sooner the issue is settled, the better. More than seven years of a difficult detente have now passed, and those in the know now understand that the only way the whole sorry affair in the Donbass can be ended is to stop both Washington and Kiev from exercising power they have no right to exert. Crimea was solved in a couple of weeks with not one shot fired, yet this situation may need a few rounds flying in order to settle the matter permanently.

The Gang of Tagalongs.

The rest of Europe is broadly standing behind Washington, yet countries such as Italy and Germany refuse to send weapons. Blinken was deeply upset in his visit last week to see that member states were not as aggressive as he would like, yet not only do governments have to be brought in line, so does the public. That public is sick of endless wars and sees no reason why NATO should fight Washington’s war over a non-member state. Capitals may be run by warhawks, but they only gain office through being elected. Europe suffering even deeper problems than it already does in order to do the Capitol a favor could see some polarizing shifts in the governments of America’s greatest allies. Many of those governments are now bringing non-essential diplomatic staff out of the Ukraine, but the manner of this happening appears to be more a tour de force for the headlines rather than for security reasons.

The Warhawk.

Even before Covid hit, the US was starting to suffer the kinds of economic woes that are not easily rectified without drastic consequences. Repo loans by the Fed were the talk of Wall St whilst economic growth and a disparity of wealth were all starting to take their toll. Two years later, whilst the overall economy has suffered, the stock market bubble continues at levels far high than pre-Covid times just as the pandemic is reaching the end of its narrative. With there is increasing public debate concerning the whole pandemic, certain western governments and companies are getting desperate to not only deflect attention away from the inquiries into the last two years, but to justify even more government spending. It was only World War Two that pulled the US out of the Great Recession and many are now speculating that if there is no great reset this year, another big war will be needed to keep Uncle Sam afloat. The $5bn that Obama invested in the Maidan coup is mere pocket change on the global scale, yet DC absolutely needs a return on every investment that its foreign policy has made.

Biden’s Baltic Battleground.

The US has today pledged to send as many as fifty thousand personnel to the Baltic States in order to fend off the perceived Russian attack hundreds of miles away in the Ukraine. An immense number of Russian assets have recently moved to Belarus in order to take part in annual exercises, yet this military buildup by the US could be seen by Minsk as a direct threat. Other western headlines have countered that the Belarusian government has sent forces to the Polish border, yet remembering that Belarus shares a border with Poland might go a good way to explaining what is really going on.

Summary.

This whole situation concerns a matter which does not concern anyone in NATO. It’s as simple as that. The meddling and malfeasance carried out under the Obama administration has not ticked all the boxes that Washington wanted and Uncle Sam is plainly not happy. NATO member states are now pulling out all the stops to start a European conflict, yet the states themselves can agree on very little. After his statement today, Zelenskiy, no more than a pawn on the board, appears to want to go on the offensive which in turn emboldens NATO to push him even harder. There is one factor that few have considered however. It is the public that vote national leaders into power; the European electorate does not want to suffer the consequences of their nations getting involved in a war that does not concern them…

Preamble.

As European nations head towards a possible war, many children could see what many adults apparently cannot. On that theme, this article is going to make certain present-day comparisons with a children’s tale of the past.

Piper of the Past.

We’re all familiar with the story of the Pied Piper of Hamelin, and for those who are not, the story being told in detail here. As simple a tale as it may be, looking at what’s going on regarding Eastern Europe today, Uncle Sam might as well be the lead member of the cast.

Rats or Yats?

Whilst employed to rid the town of Hamelin of rats, the US was instrumental in ensuring that ‘Yats’ Arseniy Yatsenyuk got the job of Prime Minister after the coup in 2014. In fact, looking at the lineup in the Verkhovna Rada the Yanks had again ‘come to the rescue’, one could be forgiven for thinking that Piper Pyatt was actually inviting the rats in rather than getting rid of them. The fact that the Ukrainian population has left the country like rats leaving a sinking ship adds further food for thought.

A Thousand Guilders.

The Piper himself was promised a thousand guilders for ridding the town of rats, yet Obama admitted to spending $5bn to put a pack of rats in power. If we factor in 800 years of inflation as well as everything that Washington is currently throwing at Kiev, that’s probably not too wide of the mark.

Playing His Music.

The piper allegedly wore bright colors and played his pipe to lure the rats into the river. 2013 saw a similar performance with paid performers wearing the Stars and Stripes in Maidan Square. Obama, Nuland et al were making wild promises whilst the western media outlets played the Star Spangled Banner to distract our attention.

Short-Changed.

After the world had been spellbound by the magic tricks of another color revolution, things took a bad turn. Rather than Obama getting what he wanted, just like the piper, he got short-changed. The piper was swindled by the mayor just like the White House felt it was cheated of Crimea and the Donbass. Revenge had to be exacted, and after a wait, this is what happened.

Leading the Children Away.

As impressionable as kids may be so are many adults. In the case of the piper, when he returned, he wore green, not unlike the US military personnel in the Ukraine today. He started to play his music, this sound being as irresistible to children as it is to many governments today. They heard his call, faithfully following him as he led them on a merry dance down his desired path. Eventually, they all reached a cave, and once inside were never seen again.

Summary.

Whether one looks at this an old fable leading kids into a cave or sees it as America’s current game plan leading the unwary into the Bear’s den depends on the perspective of the reader, yet for all the years that separate these two stories, the parallels between the two are incontrovertible…